Saturday, October 16, 2010

Social Network - The Movie

OK, I saw the "Social Network" movie last night!

I must say that it was more interesting than I anticipated.

Of course, I approached the movie from a very different perspective from the vast majority in the audience. You see, I was an employee of a company that was a forerunner to Facebook, launched 4 years prior to the events depicted in the movie.

Thus, I really wasn't a disinterested theater-goer. My team SHOULD have won the prize, but obviously didn't get it.

Were these Facebook college kids really THAT much better? Were they more technically sophisticated? Better managed? I really don't think so.

There are many, many reasons why one company pulls away from the pack, leaving many others in the dust. Timing has a lot to do with it. Luck has a lot to do with it. And yes, some decisions are just "right".

For example, in the movie, the Zuckerberg makes a big deal about the site not going down. If it does, even for a few minutes, restless users will just naturally migrate to something more stable. Absolutely correct! Our web site was sometimes up... and many times down. Those restless users who did give us a try moved on elsewhere. We never had a chance, although we had plenty of money and supposedly experienced management.

Perhaps the sex and drug scenes in the movie were overdone for theatrical effect. Perhaps not. All I know is that my own experiences at a similar Ivy League school some 35 years before this time period were entirely different. Although I'm definitely not a prude, I'm not really sure that I envy today's college students if those scenes were even remotely correct. People who act that way may be having "fun" in the eyes of the world, but in my own eyes, people like that are pampered, morally weak, and ultimately self-destructive. Not the kind of folks I would be comfortable hanging around with.

I have read that the movie provokes two very different reactions in audiences.

Older people are appalled with the ethical blindness of the main character, while younger people greatly admire what he accomplished, no matter the twists and turns he had to navigate along the way.

Somehow, in my mind, the "price" just isn't worth it for the people involved, the company and ultimately the society it represents. I keep thinking that all this will ultimately come out badly for all those involved. After all, these people are still very young, and in a real sense, the movie is only "Act 1".

Aside from the fact that I don't really admire these people (no, I really don't want to be "just like Mark"!), I have a feeling that the social networking scene will evolve over the next ten years or so away from the closed, proprietary approach of Facebook, to something more detailed, open, and personally more valuable. In my case, if Facebook disappeared tomorrow morning, it wouldn't greatly affect the conduct of my life one way or another. Social Network Version 2, 3 or 10 will be such a vital part of my daily life that I'd pay almost anything to keep access to it. I feel that way today towards Google Voice. I really personally care less about Facebook.

So, it will be fun to re-visit this movie in, say, 20 years, to see how things have changed.

If I'm right, Facebook will be known then as the AOL of the 21st Century.

Until then, my friends, be safe... and socially connected!

Saturday, June 19, 2010

Anatomy of a Failure

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It's often said that "Victory has a thousand fathers but defeat is an orphan." (John F. Kennedy)

Once in a while, you find a post about business failure from someone who's been there and done that.

These are hard earned truths, and deserve our careful attention.

So it is with "Out with the Old business in with the New", a post by Stuart Roseman.

He identifies five success factors and admits that he violated each one of them:

Parameters of a successful business:

1. Serve a need actual people have RIGHT NOW

2. Implement in such a way so that users don’t have to do ANY work or expend ANY energy except for paying

3. Avoid user interfaces like the plague.

4. Be able to field something really quickly: not years, not months, but weeks.

5. Get the product into users hands quickly and iterate on their daily needs often

This post is worth reading... and I hope you do!



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Friday, March 5, 2010

R.I.P. Wolfram Alpha

The idea behind Wolfram Alpha was amazing!

Imagine a web site that understood natural language queries?

But the concept was even better than that. The site was powered by Mathematica software. Thus, the web site could perform all sorts of complex mathematical manipulations free of charge. What a God-send for my finance graduate students!

And it really worked... at first.

Yes, I know the name is lame... and the guy behind it is impressed with the sound of his own name. But still, the site was useful and had potential.

I came up with a demo page showing my graduate students how to calculate pertinent finance expressions, such as Net Present Value, Internal Rate of Return, etc., using Wolfram Alpha. It worked perfectly during 2009.

Then I started teaching the same course in 2010, and the calculations that worked perfectly in 2009 stopped working... at all.

The great search engine that was supposed to understand natural language queries fell dumb.

When, for example, presented with:

Solve n=-10000+2000/(1.1)^1+2000/(1.1)^2+4000/(1.1)^3+4000/(1.1)^4)+5000/(1.1)^5

(which worked perfectly in 2009, and returned the correct answer of n = +2312.99)

Wolfram Alpha now returns this great reply:

"Wolfram|Alpha isn't sure how to compute an answer from your input"

"Are you an expert on this topic? Find out how you can help."

Wolfram Alpha doesn't have a Customer Service point of contact that I could find, so you are expected to post your problem in their Online Forum, and hope that some other poor soul will solve your problem for you for free, so that your issue costs Wolfram Alpha nothing. Can you say "cheap"?

In any event, I posted my problem in the Forum, but, of course, nothing could be so simple. A question posted to the Forum must be "approved" by a nameless, faceless moderator somewhere. I guess that person didn't like my question, because it has never appeared in the Wolfram Alpha Forum.

So much for help!

And sadly, so much for Wolfram Alpha!

Actually, I must admit that I saw this type of problem coming. When the site first opened for business, I contacted various employees and suggested that they really did need help appealing to the higher education market. No interest was expressed whatsoever. So it doesn't really surprise me that no other professor I know uses or recommends Wolfram Alpha. Come to think of it, neither do I.

One thing does surprise me. Why a calculation that worked last year doesn't work this year is a bit of a mystery to me. Many times, web sites don't actually improve, but they usually continue to do the same things well. Unfortunately, this can't be said for Wolfram Alpha.

So... Rest In Peace once almighty Wolfram Alpha.

We hardly knew ya!